378
FXUS61 KOKX 170529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH DAY BREAK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE FROM LAST EVENING.
2) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
3) COASTAL LOW TO FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND
TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH DAY BREAK, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, PEAKING 25-35
MPH, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE 50S TODAY, ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AREA FORECAST TO GET CLOSE TO FREEZING
WITH THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE NORTH WINDS WHICH LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM GETTING TO FREEZING. SHOULD WINDS DROP OFF MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SOME OF ITS
ENERGY GETS LEFT BEHIND ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE
COASTAL LOW FORMATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW.
FORECAST AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOME
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY NOT AN ISSUE
EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH A PROLONGED SYSTEM THERE COULD BE
ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FULL MOON APPROACHES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE NYC TERMINALS ON EAST WILL
END 09-11Z.
NW WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE N THIS EVENING AS GUSTS START WEAKENING. N WINDS 10
KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, AND SOME OUTLYING
TERMINALS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER AT TIMES THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
END TIME OF GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT, STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR THE
COAST.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WATCH CONVERTED TO SCA FOR ALL WATERS, EXCEPT THE OUTER
OCEAN ZONES, WHERE THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ROUGH CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STRONG N FLOW LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AND THE REMAINING WATERS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, DUE TO LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES ON THE OCEAN AND SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ380-
383-385.
DISCUSSION...JP/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW
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