807
FXUS61 KOKX 171351
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM.
GALE WATCH CANCELLED ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
2) LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL
MEANDER OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COASTAL IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COOLEST AIR MASS SINCE LATE APRIL WILL SETTLE IN TO START
THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE FROPA THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS
AND USHERS IN A MUCH COOLER, DRIER REGIME. RAIN OUT EAST WILL
END BEFORE MIDDAY, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE DAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON N-NW FLOW.
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH BUILDS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO BLUSTERY NW WINDS TODAY. H850 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM THE
THE MID TEENS YESTERDAY TO AROUND -3C LATER TODAY AS THE COLD
POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST, AND UPPER 40S INLAND, WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS, 20-30 MPH, ADDING TO THE CHILL.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS THEN FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN NYC METRO. THE COLDEST
LOCALES OF S CT AND THE LOHUD VALLEY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK AND THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING
FOR THESE INTERIOR ZONES. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NORTH
WINDS WHICH LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS
FROM GETTING TO FREEZING. DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. SHOULD WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD EXPAND
FARTHER SOUTH.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLOW REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON,
OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID OCTOBER. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODERATE MONDAY, WITH 60S RETURNING FOR ALL
BY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS WILL CUT OFF AT THE BASE,
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING UP OFF CAPE HATTERAS. CUT OFF
FROM ANY MEANINGFUL STEERING FLOW, THE LOW THEN APPEARS LIKELY
TO MEANDER OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GLOBAL DYNAMICAL AND AI DRIVEN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW,
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF IMPACTS LOCALLY. FOR NOW, THE CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE SYSTEM'S CENTER FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO
LIMIT ITS EFFECTS TO JUST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS THAT
COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY MOVING INTO MID NEXT WEEK
AND BEYOND, SO THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS.
NW WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
N THIS EVENING AS GUSTS START WEAKENING, WITH GUSTS ENDING
02Z-05Z. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, AND
SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HR.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25 KT, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM. GUSTY
NW FLOW 25-30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH OCEAN SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING AND SEAS ALSO LOWER FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS, IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF COAST. OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 10 FT DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS ALSO IN PLACE, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING, AND SCA COND LIKELY SPREADING TO
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS INTO MID WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...BG/DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DR
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