087
FXUS61 KOKX 180016
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
816 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE OCEAN FROM
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
2) A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND REMAIN OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK. COASTAL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COOLEST AIR MASS SINCE LATE APRIL WILL SETTLE IN TO START
THE WEEKEND. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE
TONIGHT, MAKING THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
STRAIGHT MOS NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE COLDER, WITH MORE SLIGHTLY
WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WELL
DOWN INTO WESTERN ROCKLAND/NORTHERN WESTCHESTER AND TO PARTS OF
THE SE CT COASTLINE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS LATE
TONIGHT, BLENDED MOS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COMBO OF NBM 10TH/50TH
PERCENTILE TEMPS FCST WHICH KEEPS AROUND/SUB FREEZING TEMPS
CONFINED TO THE WARNING AREA AND TO THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN NYC AND THE MID/UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE THEREAFTER, WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY, THEN WIDESPREAD LOWER
60S ON MON/TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A CLOSED LOW FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPIN UP SFC LOW PRESSURE E OF THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE SLOWLY N-NE, REMAINING
OUTSIDE 40N/70W BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND LARGE ENOUGH TO HAVE
LOCAL IMPACT, MAINLY IN TERMS OF GUSTY NE WINDS AND SOME
COASTAL FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO
SUNDAY.
N WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING,
AT 10-15KT WITH G20-25KT, OTHERWISE DECREASING TO 10 KT OR LESS.
SOME OF THE OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
OFF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25 KT, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS EXCEPT NY HARBOR UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. N WIND GUSTS 25+ KT SHOULD CONTINUE LONGER TONIGHT ON
THE NEAR SHORE OCEAN WATERS, WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH BEFORE LATE MORNING SUNDAY. NE WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONDAY.
PERSISTENT NE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THRU THU AS LOW
PRES REMAINS S OF THE WATERS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JMC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
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