165
FXUS61 KOKX 180521
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
2) A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND REMAIN OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK. COASTAL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COOLEST AIR MASS SINCE LATE APRIL WILL SETTLE IN TO START
THE WEEKEND. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE BEFORE
DAY BREAK, MAKING THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. STRAIGHT MOS NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE COLDER, WITH MORE
SLIGHTLY WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S WELL DOWN INTO WESTERN ROCKLAND/NORTHERN WESTCHESTER AND TO
PARTS OF THE SE CT COASTLINE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT, BLENDED MOS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COMBO OF
NBM 10TH/50TH PERCENTILE TEMPS FCST WHICH KEEPS AROUND/SUB
FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE WARNING AREA AND TO THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN NYC AND THE
MID/UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE THEREAFTER, WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY, THEN WIDESPREAD LOWER
60S ON MON/TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A CLOSED LOW FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPIN UP SFC LOW PRESSURE E OF THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE SLOWLY N-NE, REMAINING
OUTSIDE 40N/70W BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH AND LARGE ENOUGH TO HAVE
LOCAL IMPACT, MAINLY IN TERMS OF GUSTY NE WINDS AND SOME
COASTAL FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TODAY.
N WINDS WINDS BECOME NNE-NE BY 12Z, THEN MAY BRIEFLY BECOME ENE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS
THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GO E THIS EVENING, 22-02Z, BUT WIND SPEEDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-25 KT, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
N WIND GUSTS 25+ KT SHOULD CONTINUE LONGER EARLY THIS MORNING
ON THE NEAR SHORE OCEAN WATERS, WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BOTH DIMINISH BEFORE LATE MORNING. NE WINDS AND
SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONDAY.
PERSISTENT NE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THRU THU AS LOW
PRES REMAINS S OF THE WATERS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JMC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
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