178
FXUS61 KOKX 190019
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.
2) A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS
WEEK AND SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.
MOST OF THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK, BUT THE COLDEST LOCALES MAY TEMPS FALL TO OR
BELOW 32. IT WONT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FREEZE HEADLINES, BUT
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE LOW NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THE GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND MEANDERING AROUND WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW AND ITS STRENGTH, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FOR NOW, PERSISTENT NE FLOW MUCH CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS BY MIDWEEK.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN OUTCOMES AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL
RANGE OF IMPACTS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW.
LIGHT E/NE OR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME N/NE TOWARD
DAYBREAK, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE MORNING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20KT POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS MAY BE SOUTH OF EAST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE
BACKING TO THE E/NE.
GUSTS MONDAY MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND G15-25 KT, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN MONDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT NE WINDS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS S OF
THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS THRU THE
PERIOD, WITH GALES LIKELY ON THE OFFSHORE 20-60NM OCEAN WATERS.
GALES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON THE NEARSHORE OCEAN ZONES, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
BUILD TO 10 FT BY LATE MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ350.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ380-
383-385.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC
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