829
FXUS61 KOKX 190520
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
120 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.
2) A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS
WEEK AND SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.
MOST OF THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK, BUT THE COLDEST LOCALES MAY TEMPS FALL TO OR
BELOW 32. IT WONT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FREEZE HEADLINES, BUT
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE LOW NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THE GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND MEANDERING AROUND WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW AND ITS STRENGTH, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FOR NOW, PERSISTENT NE FLOW MUCH CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS BY MIDWEEK.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN OUTCOMES AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL
RANGE OF IMPACTS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AND N FLOW.
LIGHT NE OR VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME N-NE
TOWARD DAYBREAK, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS A FEW KT
HIGHER AND THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
15-20 KT. WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KJFK, LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND G15-25 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN MONDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT NE WINDS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS S OF
THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS THRU THE
PERIOD, WITH GALES LIKELY ON THE OFFSHORE 20-60NM OCEAN WATERS.
GALES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON THE NEARSHORE OCEAN ZONES, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
BUILD TO 10 FT BY LATE MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC
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