538
FXUS61 KOKX 191449
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THRU THE WEEK. SOME COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRES WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW IS MODELED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN THRU THE WEEK,
AND ONLY SLOWLY TAKE A GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK THRU THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND CONSENSUS KEEP THE IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA LOW. THE NBM NOW HAS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THRU THE
WEEK, WITH ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ERN
LI AND EXTREME SERN CT, FOCUSED ON THE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT
PERIOD. IF THE OVERALL MODEL TREND CONTINUE, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THESE NUMBERS COME IN EVEN LOWER.
WITH A 1030S HIGH BUILDING ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE LOW
OFFSHORE, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK. THE BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE TUE-WED PERIOD ATTM. THE LATEST
DATA SUGGESTS PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30S, WITH THE COASTS WINDIEST.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN LOW THIS WEEK, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW SHOULD START BRINGING A RISE IN TIDE LEVELS THROUGH MID
WEEK. PERSISTENT SWELLS FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY ALSO AIDE
IN TIDAL PILING AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE TIDE CYCLES OF CONCERN FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING ARE ON
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT SOUTH BAY. MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE, WATER LEVELS CURRENTLY LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS.
THE MODELING POINTS TO A STRONG UPR TROF DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT, FORCING THE LOW FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
GFS SUGGESTS A ROUGHLY 1040 HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PUT AN END TO THE STORM'S INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH.
N-NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR KJFK AND
KGON. WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AT KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND G15-25 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE
ATLC GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS.
GALES GO UP TONIGHT ON THE OUTER OCEAN, WITH THE SCA EXPANDING
TO ANZ332 AS SWELL GETS INTO THE SOUND. THE GALES AND SCA EXPAND
FURTHER ON TUE, LASTING THRU TUE NIGHT FOR NOW. NO HEADLINES ARE
UP FOR WED-FRI YET DUE TO THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME AND INHERENT
MODEL UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN CAN BE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABV 5FT THRU THE PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
AVIATION...JC/DS
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