751
FXUS61 KOKX 191907
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
307 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF OF THE EAST COAST IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND MEANDER AROUND BEFORE EVENTUALLY PUSHING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
MODELS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA FROM THIS LOW. THE LOW MAY MAKE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
AREA DRY COURTESY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH EAST, WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND
GRAB ONTO THE NOR'EASTER, PUSHING IT NORTHEAST. AT IT'S CLOSEST
APPROACH, SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE FAR EASTERN END
OF LONG ISLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE PERSIST BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH NE WINDS. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG THE COAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 20-30 MPH. SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
THE EAST MAY APPROACH 35-40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN LOW THIS WEEK, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW SHOULD START BRINGING A RISE IN TIDE LEVELS THROUGH MID
WEEK. PERSISTENT SWELLS FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY ALSO AIDE
IN TIDAL PILING AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE TIDE CYCLES OF CONCERN FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING ARE ON
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT SOUTH BAY. MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE, WATER LEVELS CURRENTLY LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS.
GLOBAL MODELING SUGGESTS A ROUGHLY 1040 HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PUT AN END TO THE STORM'S
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20
KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR KJFK AND KISP. WINDS
WEAKEN A LITTLE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AT KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND G15-25 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS.
GALES GO UP TONIGHT ON THE OUTER OCEAN, WITH THE SCA EXPANDING
TO ANZ332 AS SWELL GETS INTO THE SOUND. THE GALES AND SCA EXPAND
FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH TIMING OF
THESE HAZARDS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME ON
WEDNESDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE UP FOR WED- FRI YET DUE TO THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME AND INHERENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH SEAS
ON THE OCEAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page