902
FXUS61 KOKX 201958
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANGES TO SCAS AND GALE WARNINGS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. GUSTY NE FLOW THROUGH MIDDLE OF WEEK
BECOMES LESS GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND
PORTIONS OF GREAT SOUTH BAY.
3) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE NOR'EASTER WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
THERE WILL BE A LACK OF STEERING FLOW AS THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
GRADIENT IS LOOSE. THIS GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY WITH MORE MID
LEVEL FLOW WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SE CANADA THURSDAY
WILL STEER THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE MUCH FARTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THEREAFTER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STEEP TO ALLOW FOR NE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGHEST AND MOST FREQUENT GUSTS WILL BE ALONG
THE COAST AND LESS GUSTS AND LOWER MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COAST GOING FARTHER INLAND. GUSTS FORECAST MAINLY
IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 35 MPH BUT SOME LOCALIZED OCCASIONAL PEAK
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
NOW WITH THE WINDS PICKING UP, AND THE CONTINUOUS FLOW, THAT IS
BUILDING THE WATER HEIGHTS WITH FETCH. INCREASING OUTER WAVES OF 10
TO 12 FT BUT WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SWELL, WHICH WILL REALLY
CUT DOWN ON THE BREAKING WAVES TO THE SHORE TO MORE NEAR THE 4 TO 7
FT RANGE, OVERALL ON AVERAGE UNDER HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH THIS LOW PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE BUT EXTREME EASTERN LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN NEW LONDON CT COULD BRIEFLY HAVE RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING UP AND MIXED, LESS OF A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND
MORE INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST LOWS MAINLY IN MID 30S TO
40S RANGE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN LOW MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW SHOULD START BRINGING A RISE IN TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SWELLS FROM THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING TIDAL PILING AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR
BEACH EROSION.
NO CONCERNS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING TODAY AND WATER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR BENCHMARKS WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDE CYCLE CURRENTLY HAS THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE MOST
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS IN NASSAU AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIDE LEVELS FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THERE
STILL IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS OR
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WATER
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NY HARBOR COULD COME CLOSE TO
MINOR BENCHMARKS, BUT LOOK TO FALL JUST SHORT. ELSEWHERE, NO
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BENCHMARKS ON THURSDAY, BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT LINDENHURST AND
POTENTIALLY FREEPORT WHERE TIDAL PILING COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
WATER MOVES OUT OF THE BAYS. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE THAT MAY CUTOFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
RIDGING APPEARS TO BE MORE DOMINANT OVERALL. AT THE SURFACE, WITH
THE LOW WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION, A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY. THIS
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAKER AS WELL ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE S AND E THIS WEEK.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS SHOULD LOCK IN AROUND 010-020 TRUE AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF, SLIGHT LESSENING IN SPOTS THIS EVENING BUT PICKING BACK
UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WINDS G20-30KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCAS AND GALES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST MARINE ZONES. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM FROM FIRE ISLAND
INLET TO MORICHES INLET UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCA
WIND GUSTS FOR THAT ZONE THEREAFTER FOR REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT AS
WELL AS THE OUTER OCEAN FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM BETWEEN SANDY HOOK
NJ AND MONTAUK POINT NY, THE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL
6AM THURSDAY. FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND SOUND, SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS OF LONG ISLAND, PLUS
THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND MORICHES INLET NY,
THE SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM THURSDAY. FOR THE NY HARBOR, THE
SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, GALES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES 20-60 NM
OUT. OTHERWISE, SCA WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN ZONES OUT
20 NM AS WELL AS LONG ISLAND BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF
NEW HAVEN CT AND PORT JEFFERSON NY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WIND GUSTS ARE MAINLY SUB-
SCA. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY STILL SCA RANGE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND, OCEAN SEAS 0-20 NM OUT ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW SCA.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-380-383-385.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM
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