147
FXUS61 KOKX 210503
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
103 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANGES TO SCAS AND GALE WARNINGS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. GUSTY NE FLOW THROUGH MIDDLE OF WEEK
BECOMES LESS GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY.
2) BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR SOME SPOTS, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR AT LEAST THE THURSDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
3) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE NOR'EASTER WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
THERE WILL BE A LACK OF STEERING FLOW AS THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
GRADIENT IS LOOSE. THIS GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY WITH MORE MID
LEVEL FLOW WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SE CANADA THURSDAY
WILL STEER THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE MUCH FARTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THEREAFTER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STEEP TO ALLOW FOR NE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGHEST AND MOST FREQUENT GUSTS WILL BE ALONG
THE COAST AND LESS GUSTS AND LOWER MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COAST GOING FARTHER INLAND. GUSTS FORECAST MAINLY
IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 35 MPH BUT SOME LOCALIZED OCCASIONAL PEAK
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
NOW WITH THE WINDS PICKING UP, AND THE CONTINUOUS FLOW, THAT IS
BUILDING THE WATER HEIGHTS WITH FETCH. INCREASING OUTER WAVES OF 10
TO 12 FT BUT WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SWELL, WHICH WILL REALLY
CUT DOWN ON THE BREAKING WAVES TO THE SHORE TO MORE NEAR THE 4 TO 7
FT RANGE, OVERALL ON AVERAGE UNDER HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH THIS LOW PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE BUT EXTREME EASTERN LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN NEW LONDON CT COULD BRIEFLY HAVE RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING UP AND MIXED, LESS OF A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND
MORE INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST LOWS MAINLY IN MID 30S TO
40S RANGE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELLS FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND TIDAL PILING DURING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT COULD BRING MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING
THIS PERIOD, BUT PROBABLY LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF MONTAUK.
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AS
WELL AS FOR STATEN ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO NEWARK BAY. AN AVERAGE OF
GUIDANCE BRINGS LEVELS CLOSE TO MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD FOR SW
SUFFOLK COUNTY ALONG THE GREAT SOUTH BAY, AND THIS AREA MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE STATEMENT IF GUIDANCE TRENDS
UPWARD. SOME PILING COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CYCLE OF ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH A LONG PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW PRECEDING IT, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET FLOODING.
BEST CHANCE OF NEEDING AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT FOR THURSDAY MORNING
APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY. CAN'T RULE OUT SPOTTY MINOR
FLOODING FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CYCLE AS WELL.
THEREAFTER, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH A FULL
MOON EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH IN HEIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE THAT MAY CUTOFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
RIDGING APPEARS TO BE MORE DOMINANT OVERALL. AT THE SURFACE, WITH
THE LOW WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION, A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY. THIS
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAKER AS WELL ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE AREA TERMINALS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE S AND E THIS WEEK.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
N-NE (010-020) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THIS MORNING. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE, SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. WINDS SPEEDS THEN START
TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER 20Z, BUT GENERALLY REMAINING 10-20KT
THRU THE NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCAS AND GALES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST MARINE ZONES. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM FROM FIRE ISLAND
INLET TO MORICHES INLET UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCA
WIND GUSTS FOR THAT ZONE THEREAFTER FOR REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT AS
WELL AS THE OUTER OCEAN FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM BETWEEN SANDY HOOK
NJ AND MONTAUK POINT NY, THE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL
6AM THURSDAY. FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND SOUND, SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS OF LONG ISLAND, PLUS
THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND MORICHES INLET NY,
THE SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM THURSDAY. FOR THE NY HARBOR, THE
SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, GALES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES 20-60 NM
OUT. OTHERWISE, SCA WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN ZONES OUT
20 NM AS WELL AS LONG ISLAND BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF
NEW HAVEN CT AND PORT JEFFERSON NY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WIND GUSTS ARE MAINLY SUB-
SCA. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY STILL SCA RANGE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND, OCEAN SEAS 0-20 NM OUT ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW SCA.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-380-383-385.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ353.
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