760
FXUS61 KOKX 211942
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF MARINE HAZARDS HAS CHANGED SOME. SEE MARINE SECTION
BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WESTERN LI AND PORTIONS OF LOWER NEW
YORK HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG THE 70TH
MERIDIAN AND SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH
TONIGHT AND THEN TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM,
TAKING IT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, UP TO 30MPH. HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH MAX MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
IN ADDITION, WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GO
FROM THE 60S ON THURSDAY TO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH WINDS DECREASING, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
NYC METRO. A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FULL MOON (MONDAY 10/26), WILL ALLOW FOR WATER
LEVELS TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WESTERN
LI AND PORTIONS OF LOWER NY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW WATER
LEVELS COMING IN SEVERAL TENTHS BELOW FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE,
THAT WATER LEVEL STAY BELOW, BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE SAFE SIDE
UNTIL THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE PASSES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THEREAFTER, IT LOOKS REAL MARGINAL HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASING
EASTERLY SWELLS.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AREA TERMINALS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE WHICH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
NNE TO N WINDS, GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 010 TRUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE N/NW TNGT INTO THU. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 10-20G20-30KT, WITH A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT.
WINDS START TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER 20Z, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN
10-15G20KT THRU THE NIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS
MAY LOSE PREVAILING GUSTS FOR A 4 TO 5 HR PERIOD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN 12-13Z THU. PEAK GUST THU SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN TODAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY END FOR A TIME TNGT FOR KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: VFR. NNW WINDS G15-25KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. NNE WINDS, WITH G15-20KT MAINLY IN MORNING.
SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
TIMING OF MARINE HEADLINES HAS BEEN ALTERED FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
BUT NORTHERLY GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST OCEAN ZONES WITH SCA
ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COME DOWN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GALE HEADLINES GOING OVER TO SCA AND
POSSIBLY NO HEADLINES ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR THURSDAY.
SEAS INITIALLY AT 10 TO 17 FT ON THE OCEAN TO START WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-380.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ383-385.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW
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