725
FXUS61 KOKX 220124
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
924 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF MARINE HAZARDS HAS CHANGED SOME. SEE MARINE SECTION
BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
2) THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PAST. SUBSEQUENT TIDE
CYCLES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST TO REACH MINOR BENCHMARKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG THE 70TH
MERIDIAN AND SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH
TONIGHT AND THEN TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM,
TAKING IT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, UP TO 30MPH. HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH MAX MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
IN ADDITION, WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GO
FROM THE 60S ON THURSDAY TO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH WINDS DECREASING, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
NYC METRO. A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE HAS PAST AND ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
AND STATEMENTS HAVE ENDED.
SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES LOOK REAL MARGINAL HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
DECREASING EASTERLY SWELLS.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AREA TERMINALS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE WHICH MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
NNE TO N WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N/NW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT, WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW
10KT AND MOST SPOTS SEEING THEIR GUSTS EITHER END OR BECOME
OCCASIONAL. STILL EXPECTING WINDS 10-15 WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20KT OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY NOT
GUST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN 12-13Z THURSDAY.
PEAK GUST THURSDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY. WINDS
START TO DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. NNE WINDS, WITH G15-20KT MAINLY IN MORNING.
SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
TIMING OF MARINE HEADLINES HAS BEEN ALTERED FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
BUT NORTHERLY GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST OCEAN ZONES WITH SCA
ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COME DOWN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GALE HEADLINES GOING OVER TO SCA AND
POSSIBLY NO HEADLINES ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR THURSDAY.
SEAS INITIALLY AT 10 TO 17 FT ON THE OCEAN TO START WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-380.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ383-385.
DISCUSSION...BC/DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW
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