521
FXUS61 KOKX 220601
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR S NASSAU AND SW
SUFFOLK THIS MORNING. AVIATION ALSO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
2) ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE BACK BAYS THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST TO REACH
MINOR BENCHMARKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG THE 70TH
MERIDIAN AND SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH
TONIGHT AND THEN TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TURN ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM,
TAKING IT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, UP TO 30MPH. HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH MAX MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
IN ADDITION, WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GO
FROM THE 60S ON THURSDAY TO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH WINDS DECREASING, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
NYC METRO. A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SRN NASSAU AND
SWRN SUFFOLK FOR THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME OF THESE SPOTS COULD JUST TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS.
SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE MARGINAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING THRU
THE REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND DECREASING EASTERLY SWELLS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
JOSEPHINE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, REACHING
THE NORTH ATLC ON FRI.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NNE WINDS BACK TO THE NW THIS MRNG. OCNL GUSTS OF 20-25KT
POSSIBLE THRU THE EARLY MRNG, MAINLY AT THE COAST. WINDS
INCREASE AFT 12-14Z WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30KT, THEN DIMINISH
AFT 22Z AND LIKELY LOSE GUSTS. THE WINDS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE THRU TONIGHT, VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE N/NNE
AGAIN ON FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THRU 14Z.
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT - FRIDAY: VFR. NNE WINDS MAINLY 10-15KT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
TIMING OF MARINE HEADLINES HAS BEEN ALTERED FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
BUT NORTHERLY GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST OCEAN ZONES WITH SCA
ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COME DOWN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GALE HEADLINES GOING OVER TO SCA AND
POSSIBLY NO HEADLINES ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR THURSDAY.
SEAS INITIALLY AT 10 TO 17 FT ON THE OCEAN TO START WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-380.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ383-385.
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