918
FXUS61 KOKX 220854
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
454 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER'S BAYS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL NOON TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
2) ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE BACK BAYS THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST TO REACH
MINOR BENCHMARKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG THE 70TH
MERIDIAN AND SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY, AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO THE LOW PULLING
AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS (AND LESS SO SUNDAY
NIGHT) WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL SE CT TONIGHT. ALL OTHER
AREAS WHERE FROST IS EXPECTED, THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SRN NASSAU AND
SWRN SUFFOLK FOR THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME OF THESE SPOTS COULD JUST TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS.
SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE MARGINAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING THRU
THE REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND DECREASING EASTERLY SWELLS.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
JOSEPHINE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, REACHING
THE NORTH ATLC ON FRI.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW THIS MRNG. OCNL GUSTS OF 20-25KT
POSSIBLE THRU ABOUT 12Z, MAINLY AT THE COAST. WINDS INCREASE
AFT 12-14Z WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30KT, THEN DIMINISH AFT 22Z AND
LIKELY LOSE GUSTS. THE WINDS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT
RANGE THRU TONIGHT, VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE N/NNE AGAIN ON FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THRU 14Z.
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT - FRIDAY: VFR. NNE WINDS MAINLY 10-15KT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH TODAY THANKS TO THE RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE STORM PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
GALES FOR THE OUTER WESTERN 2 OCEAN WATERS CONTINUE UNTIL 6 AM
THIS MORNING, WHILE FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT OUT TO
60 NM REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM. CONVERSION TO SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. SMALL CRAFTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
WAVES ABOVE 5 FT, BUT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS, SCAS COME DOWN AT 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR MOST
WATERS, EXCEPT THE EASTERN SOUND (ENTRANCE TO THE SOUND) AND
PECONIC AND GARDINER'S BAYS WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY LINGER
UNTIL NOON TODAY.
SEAS INITIALLY AT 8 TO 11 FT ON THE OCEAN TO
START WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-335-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ332-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-380.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ383-385.
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