921
FXUS61 KOKX 221110
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE 2 WESTERN OUTER WATERS
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUND, AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
2) ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE BACK BAYS THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST TO REACH
MINOR BENCHMARKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG THE 70TH
MERIDIAN AND SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY, AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO THE LOW PULLING
AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS (AND LESS SO SUNDAY
NIGHT) WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL SE CT TONIGHT. ALL OTHER
AREAS WHERE FROST IS EXPECTED, THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SRN NASSAU AND
SWRN SUFFOLK FOR THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME OF THESE SPOTS COULD JUST TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS.
SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE MARGINAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING THRU
THE REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND DECREASING EASTERLY SWELLS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
JOSEPHINE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, REACHING
THE NORTH ATLC ON FRI.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW INCREASING THRU 14Z WITH PEAK GUSTS UP
TO 30KT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFT 22Z AND LIKELY LOSE GUSTS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE TONIGHT, VEERING
SLIGHTLY TO THE N/NNE AGAIN ON FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THRU 14Z.
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. NNE WINDS MAINLY 10-15KT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH TODAY THANKS TO THE RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE STORM PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
GALES FOR THE OUTER WESTERN 2 OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. FROM MORICHES
INLET TO MONTAUK POINT OUT TO 60 NM GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM. CONVERSION TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WAVES ABOVE 5
FT, BUT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE NON- OCEAN
WATERS, SCAS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR MOST WATERS, EXCEPT THE
EASTERN SOUND (ENTRANCE TO THE SOUND) AND PECONIC AND GARDINER'S
BAYS WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY LINGER UNTIL NOON TODAY.
SEAS INITIALLY AT 8 TO 11 FT ON THE OCEAN TO START WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ332-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-380.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
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