662
FXUS61 KOKX 221534
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1134 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE 2 WESTERN OUTER WATERS
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUND, AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
2) ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE BACK
BAYS THIS MORNING. SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST TO REACH MINOR BENCHMARKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALONG THE 70TH
MERIDIAN AND SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY, AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO THE LOW PULLING
AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS (AND LESS SO SUNDAY
NIGHT) WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL SE CT TONIGHT. ALL OTHER
AREAS WHERE FROST IS EXPECTED, THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SRN NASSAU AND
SWRN SUFFOLK FOR THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME OF THESE SPOTS COULD JUST TOUCH MINOR BENCHMARKS.
SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE MARGINAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING THRU
THE REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND DECREASING EASTERLY SWELLS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR AS SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE BEGINS TO TRACK AWAY FROM
THE AREA OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI.
N WINDS GUSTING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 22Z, THEN MAY PICK UP A
AGAIN TO 10-15 KT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AFTER 02Z-03Z. WINDS BECOME NNE 10 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. NNE WINDS AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THIS IS OCCURRING WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING AND MULTIPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. ALREADY THERE
HAVE BEEN GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT FOR SOME MARINE AND COASTAL
OBSERVATIONS. THEREFORE EXPANDED THE SCA TO ALL NON-OCEAN
ZONES UNTIL 6 PM TODAY TO COVER THE TIMEFRAME OF BEST VERTICAL
MIXING. THE OCEAN FROM FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT OUT
20 NM NOW HAS SCA TO MATCH REST OF THE OCEAN. ALL OCEAN SCA'S
OUT TO 20 NM OFFSHORE GO UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH GUSTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AS INDICATED BY SOME MODELS
ESPECIALLY THE RAP. THERE IS FORECAST TO BE SOME LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS. IF UPDATED MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MULTIPLE HOURS TONIGHT, SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD HAVE
EXTENSIONS OF SCA INTO TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE NON-
OCEAN ZONES.
SEAS INITIALLY AT 8-11 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL.
SEAS NEAR 5-6 FT COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES. OTHERWISE MAINLY SUB-SCA FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/JP
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