104
FXUS64 KOUN 141117
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
AFTER A COLD MORNING, SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE BRINGING IN A WARMER AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH MILD,
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER ACROSS OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH CLEAR
AGAIN TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STIR THE AIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
WARMING TREND CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY AS LOW-LEVEL JETS START DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MIGHT NOT WEAKEN TOO MUCH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY COULD BE WINDY AS THE SURFACE ISOBARS TIGHTEN,
WHILE MIXING INTO THE PERSISTING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD SEE AFTERNOON
GUSTS AT 30-35 MPH. WIND GUSTS SATURDAY COULD EVEN BE A HIGHER
SHOULD WE MIX UP TO 850 MB ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS COULD
HAMPER THAT SHOULD IT BE DENSE IN COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE
IN QUESTION, NBM WAS A BIT WEAK WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON USING THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE WINDS NUDGED 40%. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS WE START TAPPING INTO GULF
MOISTURE FORMING A BROAD DRYLINE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OK PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
BY SUNDAY OUR UPPER LEVELS ARE IN SPLIT-FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERLY JET
IN A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS INTO VERY MOIST AIR WHICH WILL AFFECT
OUR AREA WITH INCREASING POPS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
RAINFALL WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASING
RAINFALL RATES. UPPER TROUGH STARTS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ITS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING IN
SOME INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION PERHAPS MORE ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES STILL HIGH SO THE MAIN IMPACT COULD BE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL & POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM STARTS PUSHING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CANADIAN-BASED AIR
STARTING TO FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT-WAVE COMING
THROUGH THE TROUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE (GUSTS 15 TO 20KT) ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, REST OF TERMINALS WILL
SEE THE WIND STAY VERY LIGHT BUT ALSO BACKING FROM NW/W TO S/SE).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 42 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 42 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 41 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 39 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 40 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>022-034.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...11
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