499
FXUS64 KOUN 142303
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
503 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SEVERE
STORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR THIS PERIOD.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY (NORTHWEST).
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSES OUT OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
INTO THE 40'S.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60'S/70'S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BECOMES
POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE TROUGH SPLITS, AND THE ELONGATED JET
STREAK (EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS) PROVIDES FOR
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, INCREASED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW PRIMARILY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH PERSISTING SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. GULF MOISTURE
(IN THE FORM OF STRATUS, FOG, OR DRIZZLE - OR ALL THREE) SPREADS
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND STALLS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE BASIN. WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE MODELED SURFACE BOUNDARY, WOULD ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OR TRAINING OF RAIN/STORMS, WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK.
STORM TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLES
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL CAMS
BEGIN TO CAPTURE THIS EVENT BEFORE GAINING CONFIDENCE IN THE AREA
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A
CONCERN. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT THE H500 JET LIFTING OVER OUR
REGION AS A STRONG 65+ KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROG'D SEVERE PARAMETERS, WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE SEVERE THREAT TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR I-40 AND SOUTHWARD.
WHILE INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW-SIDE, WIND SHEAR AND
0-3KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AND COULD LEAD
TO QLCS TORNADOES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE SEASON'S FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS TO BE NEXT
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CHANCES ARE STILL LOW AND ARE CONFINED TO
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS (ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA) AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 67 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 41 69 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 71 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 69 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 39 67 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 40 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14
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