864
FXUS64 KOUN 151008
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
408 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY IN THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, BUT IT SHOULD NOT GET TOO
STRONG AS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS OPPOSED TO EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
LARGE-SCALE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW TAKES A SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH PRECIPITATION GENERALLY MOVING OUT
MONDAY AS THE DRYSLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE 1.5
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
BULLSEYES OVER 1.8 INCHES. SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID
NOVEMBER PW VALUES FOR KOUN SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY THREE OCCURRENCES
OF 1.5 INCH BEING MEASURED THIS LATE IN THE YEAR. SO WE ARE
DEFINITELY ON THE HIGH TAIL OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED AND
DON'T SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT. THERE WILL OF COURSE BE
THE QUESTION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN SETS UP THOUGH, SO
THE AXIS OF FORECAST HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOME OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ANOTHER QUESTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP. THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH A 110-115 KNOT 500
MB JET AND A 60-75 KNOT 850 MB JET SETTING UP OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AT THE MOMENT,
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH GIVEN THE TIME
OF NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. EXPLICIT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY VERY FAR NORTH INTO
THE AREA EITHER, BUT IF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS,
THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF SHEAR TO ORGANIZE EVEN ELEVATED
STORMS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT THEN A UPPER
TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA DIGS AND CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS
STILL A SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH SOME MEMBERS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS STILL GIVES
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, BUT ALSO STILL PROVIDES AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY IF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER KANSAS AS OPPOSED TO IOWA/ILLINOIS AS A FEW
(ALBEIT A MINORITY) OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROJECT. WILL NOT
MENTION ANYTHING ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL... ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE LOW POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 48 68 56 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 69 49 71 54 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 49 74 57 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 47 70 48 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 67 46 70 52 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 69 45 71 57 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14
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