017
FXUS64 KOUN 161804
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING COOLER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
ONE MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING A BIT
WARMER THAN RECENT MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING TOWARD THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY CLOSED MID-
LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO. THEN SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS DISCUSSED
BEFORE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS LATE
IN THE SEASON, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE
POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND MAY BE ISSUED
TODAY OR SUNDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS STILL
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP, BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG. AND THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM, WHICH NOW
PUTS MONDAY MORE IN PLAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS SOME
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WHILE WE STILL
HAVE STRONG FORCING AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION, THE MID-
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. MID-LEVEL COOL TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE HIGH LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOW-MID LEVELS AND IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS TO ALLOW A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING, THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW AS WELL.
THE NAM HINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED
CAPE DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER THE AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR POTENTIALLY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE PATH OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME RAIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT LEAST WITH THE TIMING
CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN THE MODELS). BUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS, AMIDST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS,
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ~08-11 UTC SUNDAY. BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, CONCURRENT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING,
LOW CIGS AND MVFR/NEAR-IFR CATEGORY ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS, THOUGH THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL SIGNAL REMAINS TOO DIFFUSE TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT
MENTIONS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 70 60 66 / 0 50 100 90
HOBART OK 54 69 57 66 / 0 70 100 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 73 60 69 / 0 40 100 60
GAGE OK 48 65 49 61 / 0 30 100 70
PONCA CITY OK 53 71 58 67 / 0 40 100 100
DURANT OK 57 74 62 70 / 0 50 90 100
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09
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