084
FXUS64 KOUN 162302
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
502 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- SEVERE STORM LIKLIHOOD INCREASING FOR EARLY MONDAY
- TURNING COOLER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 80 DECAMETERS OR LARGER. THIS STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE NOTHING ON SATELLITE LOOPS, BUT WILL THE THE
MAIN STORY LATE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
AMPLE WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY, LIKELY BETWEEN 5AM AND 9 AM IN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT BEST A SLOW AND RAINY
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, OR A LINE PACKED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIALLY QLCS TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE A GOOD BET. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AS WELL.
STAY INFORMED WITH ANY FURTHER FORECAST REFINEMENT AND UPDATES.
WE ALSO URGE EVERYONE TO HAVE A WAY TO MONITOR THE WEATHER DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, INCLUDING A WAY TO RECEIVE ANY
WARNINGS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
IT'S BEAUTIFUL OUT THERE. HOPE YOU ENJOYED IT TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER, THERE'S BEEN QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY INTO THE 60S-70S.
WINDS HAVE BEEN UP A BIT THANKS TO LEE TROUGHING INCREASING DUE
TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STRENGTHENS
AND CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. WINDS WON'T DIE DOWN MUCH THIS
EVENING, SO AFTER SUNSET, THINGS WILL START TO FEEL A BIT CHILLY.
FOX
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN NICE ENOUGH, WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE
FAR NW CORNER OF OKLAHOMA, BUT NEAR 60 ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA. THERE SHOULD EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE TO START OUT THE DAY, BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ALSO ON
THE INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES. THINGS
SHOULD START OUT SLOWLY, WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST, MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT, THINGS SHOULD
RAPIDLY RAMP UP.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WILL GO
INTO EFFECT 6 PM SUNDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. FOR
AREAS FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL BE WANING MONDAY AFTERNOON SOMETIME, BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO TWEAK THE WATCH DURING LATER SHIFTS.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY - HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE VERY LIKELY (>80%) FOR THE WATCH
AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1-3" OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-5". WHERE EXACTLY WILL THESE HIGHER POCKETS
WILL BE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY THAT THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL SHOW UP SOMEWHERE.
NOW FOR THE FUN PART...AND IS KIND OF A REPEAT FROM THE KEY
MESSAGES / SYNOPSIS SECTION(S) ABOVE, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL THINGS
TO WATCH FOR.
IN A NUTSHELL, BE PREPARED FOR A BUSY MONDAY MORNING. BEST CASE
SCENARIO, SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL MAKE THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTES A SLOW ONE. WORST CASE SCENARIO, A SQUALL
LINE WITH SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND QLCS TORNADOES WOULD BE
PUSHING THROUGH NEARLY THE SAME TIME. CAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW, WITH MOST AREAS PROGGED WITH 300-600 J/KG VALUES. THE WIND
SHEAR HOWEVER, IS IMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KNOT
RANGE, ALONG WITH SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2. IN OTHER WORDS, EARLY MAY
TYPE VALUES BEING PROJECTED BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS.
WEIRDNESS FACTOR #1 FOR THE GEEKS IN THE CROWD: IGNORE THE LURE OF
LOW NUMBERS PART 1.
SPC OUTLOOKS HAVE A 2% AND A 5% TORNADO OUTLOOKS IN SW OKLAHOMA
AND ALL OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THESE NUMBERS SEEM SMALL, BUT
ARE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR MID NOVEMBER. THESE PROBABILITIES ARE
THE SAME (OR HIGHER) THAN THE SYSTEM WHICH CAME THROUGH ON
NOVEMBER 2-3.
WEIRDNESS FACTOR #2 FOR THE GEEKS IN THE CROWD: IGNORE THE LURE
OF LOW NUMBERS PART 2.
IF YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE THAT WANT TO
SEE THE CAPE VALUES AND ASSOCIATED PARAMETERS...DON'T BE FOOLED.
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE AROUND
300 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG. IF THIS WERE APRIL OR MAY, THE CAPE
BULLIES WOULD BE LAUGHING AT THESE NUMBERS. FOR THIS EVENT, WITH
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, IT MAY BE ENOUGH.
IN FACT, IF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE INSTABILITY
EVEN A SMALL BIT, THIS CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE UNDERPLAYING THINGS
A BIT. SOME OF THE NSSL CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
WEIRDNESS FACTOR #3 FOR THE GEEKS IN THE CROWD: IGNORE THE
CALENDAR.
YES, IT IS NOVEMBER. NUMEROUS TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED IN
OKLAHOMA...IN 2015,2018,2020,2021,2022, AND IN 2024.
FOX
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE PATH OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME RAIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT LEAST WITH THE TIMING
CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN THE MODELS). BUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING TOMORROW. LOW
STRATUS (YIELDING MVFR CEILINGS) WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
SOME SITES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY SEE CEILINGS DROP INTO THE
IFR RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 70 60 66 / 0 40 100 90
HOBART OK 54 68 56 66 / 0 70 100 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 73 60 69 / 0 40 100 60
GAGE OK 47 64 49 61 / 10 30 100 70
PONCA CITY OK 53 69 58 68 / 0 40 100 100
DURANT OK 58 76 63 71 / 0 30 90 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ006>008-011>013-015>020-022>031-035>040-044-045.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ085-086-088>090.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...14
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