869
FXUS64 KOUN 181124
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
- SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING WITH QLCS TORNADOES.
- STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY, WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT.
- TURNING COOLER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
WE WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND FOCUS ON THE NEAR TERM WITH THE
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. THE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
THAT WE ARE SEEING THE QLCS TORNADOES WITH THE EXTREME WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING MORE NORTHEAST. AS THE STORMS
MOVE FARTHER EAST, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIKE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BUT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT. WITH THIS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. WITH TIME, THIS INITIAL LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SURFACE EVOLUTION FOR ANY POTENTIAL OF
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS COLD-CORE SET UP.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER
NEAR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES TO START TO MONDAY, THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NOVEMBER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION, AND WITH THE WINDS DROPPING OFF
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR, A FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BRUSH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MAIN IMPACT
BEING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND REINFORCING THE LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BY EARLY THURSDAY, A MORE
CONTINENTAL AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
PROVIDE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS
TIME FRAME, WE COULD SEE A FREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY, WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER
FLOW SWITCHING BACK TO ZONAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, YIELDING AT LEAST A BRIEF RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS A SQUALL LINE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL REACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 13Z
AND EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOLLOWING THE SQUALL LINE, VERY GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT MOST SPOTS) WILL BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
TO BECOME VFR BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 46 61 36 / 100 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 42 64 34 / 90 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 45 67 37 / 90 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 36 56 29 / 90 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 42 60 34 / 100 0 0 0
DURANT OK 71 48 70 41 / 100 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-
044-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-008-012-
013-018>020-023>031-035>042-044>046.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...04
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