950
FXUS64 KOUN 190403
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1003 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
- STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.
- TURNING COOLER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SKIES WILL
CLEAR, WINDS WILL DECREASES AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA,
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT. WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 00Z,
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 IN STILLWATER TO PONCA CITY AREA
FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THIS, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. STILL, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH 70
DEGREES, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (MID
50S TO MID 60S). AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AND EVEN WITH WINDS NOT COMPLETELY DROPPING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH, CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER COOL/COLD NIGHT AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
STILL APPEAR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH
PERHAPS A LIGHT FREEZE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL STUNT
ANY WARM UP AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALL THESE BOUNDARIES WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WORKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN CLIMB SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
IN ADDITION, MANY LOCATIONS WILL GO ANOTHER WEEK WITHOUT SEEING A
FREEZE THIS FALL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, GENERALLY
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 45 61 36 / 100 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 41 64 33 / 90 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 45 68 37 / 90 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 35 56 28 / 90 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 41 61 32 / 100 0 0 0
DURANT OK 71 48 71 41 / 100 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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