144
FXUS64 KOUN 191733
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WEEKEND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE NORTHWARD TOWARD CANADA, WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO COLD ADVECTION ON ITS
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. THE BLUE-NORTHER-TYPE SCENARIOS THAT SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL NOT COME TO
PASS; IN FACT, THE INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING WILL BE RATHER SUBTLE. PRIOR TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT, SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE RED RIVER.
WITH COLD AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP DOWN TOWARD
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA STAND A LOW-TO-MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEEING THEIR
FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SUNNY SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW, ENSURING
THAT HIGHS TUMBLE. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S. A SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE RED RIVER
REGION TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PRETTY MUCH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK - THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW INFLUENCING US. WITH
THAT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE LONG RANGE AT THE MOMENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH OPENS UP ANOTHER
RETURN FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID, THIS WEEK'S COLD FRONT SEEMS TO
BE THE ONE THAT WILL FINALLY SWEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REACH INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA, SO AT LONG LAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASED
TIME LAG BETWEEN THE BEGINNING OF RETURN FLOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM. THE SEVERE RISK WILL CORRESPONDINGLY REMAIN
LOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLIMB UNTIL WE'RE BACK INTO THE 2024 NORM OF BEING WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL
BY SUNDAY, AROUND WHICH TIME ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS POSSIBLE.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 37 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 63 33 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 56 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 33 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 71 41 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...LUB
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