538
FXUS64 KOUN 200456
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE A FREEZE HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
FREEZING, BUT NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING AT
THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
COOLING TREND CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.
A LIGHT FREEZE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY WORKS SOUTH REINFORCING THE COOL AIR, WHILE NOT REACHING
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTH TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD OKLAHOMA. LIGHT WINDS, DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO MORE OF THE AREA HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE. HOWEVER, FOR NOW NBM KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON MONDAY, AS WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
FRONTS, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY AND ONLY KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODELS DO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME SNOW JUST BEFORE
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
WITH THIS ONE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY WINDS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
BECOME MORE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 37 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 63 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 56 29 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 33 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 71 41 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08
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