461
FXUS64 KOUN 201142
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
- NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN/EXPAND IN WAVELENGTH
TODAY WHILE MEANDERING ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ITS WAKE, HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PROMOTE ANTICYCLOGENESIS, WITH A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH FORMING
IN TEXAS. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
ANTICYCLONE TODAY, SO NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, SO IT'S LOOKING LIKE A QUINTESSENTIAL FALL
DAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE PLAINS TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
WE'LL GET CALM ENOUGH TO LET TEMPERATURES REALLY BOTTOM OUT, BUT AT
LEAST SPORADIC/LOCAL TERRAIN FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS TO STILLWATER.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR AREA AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
DAY WITHOUT A CLOUD IN THE SKY, WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING 2-3
DEGREES. MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO REACH A FULL CALM BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL JET MAX REACHING CALIFORNIA.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING TO DISLODGE
THE QUIESCENT/SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN, SO ONE MORE DAY WITH "COOL"
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL REACH THE CENTRAL US OVER
THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR LEE TROUGHING TO BUILD BACK
IN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NEAREST 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY
MORNING MIGHT WELL BE IN THE YUCATAN, SO THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
AT MOST HEAVILY MODIFIED GULF AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS,
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE, THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT IT WILL RETURN US TO THE PATTERN OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND THIS, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A MID-
LATITUDE STORM TO DEVELOP TO OUR EAST SOMETIME AROUND THANKSGIVING,
WHICH WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
MAYBE SOME RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER KPNC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE AREA WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 36 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 58 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 54 30 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 31 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 39 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26
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