865
FXUS64 KOUN 270449
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
- A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
A MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END. ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH FOR LATE DECEMBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AND OR A DELAY IN
FOG DEVELOPMENT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE
PART OF OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MAINLY INCREASE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW
AREAS MAY SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, THERE MAY BE MORE FOG, AS
MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. MODELS DIFFER SOME
OF THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW, BUT THERE MAY BE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG, ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE MORNING, BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO AT LEAST
THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY
AFTERNOON. ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA; HOWEVER, PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A STORM OR TWO.
BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES RATHER LOW FOR
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL ADD IN SOME LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE MORNING. IT'S
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND MOIST/HUMID RECENTLY, 30-DAY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT ACROSS THE WESTERN-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN TEXAS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 1/10
OF AN INCH. WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THE DORMANT VEGETATION WILL CERTAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE, THEY MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ESCALATE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF SEASONABLE/COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER- LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC PLAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND. THIS, ALONG WITH ADVECTION
OF WARMED/DOWNSLOPED AIRMASSES (FROM THE HIGH PLAINS), WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARDS VERY UNSEASONABLE
READINGS (60S TO 70S). IN FACT, PORTIONS OF WESTERN- NORTH TEXAS
CURRENTLY HAVE A 10-20% OF SEEING A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 80-
DEGREES ON MONDAY.
A NOTABLE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY
EVENING, WITH A RETURN TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT ARE <10%.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MOST OF OUR
SITES THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 42 59 42 / 50 0 10 0
HOBART OK 52 42 60 39 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 44 65 44 / 90 0 0 0
GAGE OK 50 37 58 37 / 20 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 53 42 58 40 / 10 0 20 0
DURANT OK 57 47 65 45 / 100 40 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...08
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