702
FXUS64 KOUN 271729
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
- SOME RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
OTHERWISE, WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH, NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. FARTHER SOUTH
VEERED LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT AND
WILL LIMIT AND PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS VEERED FLOW SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR THAT A GOOD PART
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME SUNSHINE. WHERE THIS
OCCURS THE LONGEST, SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX, TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES, INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VEERED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER MAY BE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TRIES TO BRING RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT PART OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY APPEARS OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, AFTER SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF
THIS WAVE, EXPECT ONCE AGAIN TO SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MILD
DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL ENERGY COMES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS AND
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE OF
AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ITS
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY WARM AND
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE LESS
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED LATELY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES
IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S LIKELY ELSEWHERE,
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT.
THE SURFACE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BY MONDAY EVENING TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AS WELL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THIS FRONT DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH DRY.
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST
MIDLEVEL FLOW DOMINATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
FOG CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND STRATUS IS SLOWLY
RECEDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON, MOST SITES SHOULD
BE EITHER VFR OR MVFR. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR
STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 59 40 63 / 10 20 0 0
HOBART OK 40 63 37 65 / 0 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 65 40 69 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 36 60 34 63 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 60 37 62 / 0 20 0 0
DURANT OK 48 67 44 66 / 0 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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