066
FXUS64 KOUN 280450
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
- SOME RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
LOW CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THAT FURTHER CLEARING MAY RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG, PERHAPS DENSE. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WILL HELP INCREASE HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR NOW WILL ADD A MENTION OF FOG ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF/THIRD OF OKLAHOMA.
OVERNIGHT, AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP. PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOME AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35, CLOUDS MAY REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
SUNDAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (60S AND LOWER 70S).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL ENERGY COMES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS AND
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE OF
AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ITS
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY WARM AND
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE LESS
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED LATELY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES
IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S LIKELY ELSEWHERE,
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT.
THE SURFACE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BY MONDAY EVENING TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AS WELL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THIS FRONT DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH DRY.
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST
MIDLEVEL FLOW DOMINATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION AS WELL AS WHEN IMPROVEMENTS
MAY OCCUR IS HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE MID-LEVELS OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME
MODELS THEN KEEP LOW CLOUDS (IFR/LIFR CEILINGS) AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHILE OTHERS CLEAR THINGS
MUCH FASTER. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS
MANY SITES IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ARE
ALREADY OBSERVING FOG AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 45 57 41 / 0 20 20 0
HOBART OK 60 44 62 38 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 47 65 41 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 55 38 60 34 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 56 42 58 37 / 10 0 20 0
DURANT OK 63 49 64 44 / 0 0 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08
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