726
FXUS64 KOUN 280815
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
- SOME RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING MID/LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA
MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE IN A PSUEDO-WARM SECTOR FROM NEAR
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE TRYING TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO THE EAST OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ALL THESE FEATURES MOVE QUICKLY EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SKIES WILL AGAIN TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY, BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 MAY ONCE
AGAIN MISS OUT WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH. STILL ANTICIPATE MANY
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MIDDLE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NORTH WIND. NOT BAD FOR LATE DECEMBER.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST FOR SUNDAY AIDING IN A VERY WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS A MUCH LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
COME INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS PRESSURES FALL THROUGHOUT
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY
OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AN AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS GO THOUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INITIALLY MAY POSE A RISK WITH THE WIND
SHIFT WRT ANY FIRES THAT MAY HAVE STARTED AND THEN WILL SIGNAL THE
END OF THE WARMER WEATHER AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION AS WELL AS WHEN IMPROVEMENTS
MAY OCCUR IS HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE MID-LEVELS OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME
MODELS THEN KEEP LOW CLOUDS (IFR/LIFR CEILINGS) AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHILE OTHERS CLEAR THINGS
MUCH FASTER. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DENSE FOG FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS
MANY SITES IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ARE
ALREADY OBSERVING FOG AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 41 64 43 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 38 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 42 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 34 64 39 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 58 39 63 39 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 59 44 65 46 / 70 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08
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