359
FXUS64 KOUN 281733
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
- SOME RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING MID/LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA
MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE IN A PSUEDO-WARM SECTOR FROM NEAR
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE TRYING TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO THE EAST OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ALL THESE FEATURES MOVE QUICKLY EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SKIES WILL AGAIN TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY, BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 MAY ONCE
AGAIN MISS OUT WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH. STILL ANTICIPATE MANY
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MIDDLE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NORTH WIND. NOT BAD FOR LATE DECEMBER.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST FOR SUNDAY AIDING IN A VERY WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS A MUCH LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
COME INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS PRESSURES FALL THROUGHOUT
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY
OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AN AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS GO THOUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INITIALLY MAY POSE A RISK WITH THE WIND
SHIFT WRT ANY FIRES THAT MAY HAVE STARTED AND THEN WILL SIGNAL THE
END OF THE WARMER WEATHER AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
NOTHING LIKE AN EASY SET OF TAFS THIS WEEK...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
THE STUBBORN CLOUDS FINALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND STRONGER
WINDS. BUT, THAT WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE LOWEST CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WITH THE WOODWARD AIRPORT STAYING AT OR
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS TRUE, THE OBSERVATION SITE AT
KWWR ISN'T QUITE MATCHING SURROUNDING OBS SITES (SHOWING 1/4 MILE
AND LIGHT SNOW/RAIN AND 40+ DEGREES). WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY BE
SUSPECT (OR MAY NOT), THE LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FLYING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW VFR.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A MIX OF CLOUD COVER, WITH LIGHT FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS COMING BACK TO THE SAME SITES WE SAW THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE FORECASTS DROPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 12 HOURS, SO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE AREAS FOR IFR
LATER.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 41 64 43 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 38 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 42 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 34 64 39 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 58 39 63 39 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 59 44 65 46 / 70 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21
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