594
FXUS64 KOUN 282021
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
- WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR THE RED
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (E.G., -20 TO -21 DEG C AT 500 MB). ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT
OF STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
FOR LATER TONIGHT, AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S DEG F.
ON MONDAY, A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT,
EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY--ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA WILL RISE INTO THE 70S DEG F. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ~20 DEG F ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY, THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT AS A DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASS WILL COUNTER THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 850 MB FLOW WILL QUITE STRONG (~50 KNOTS) BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. VERTICAL MIXING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH (OR HIGHER) AT
THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A
COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
MAHALE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
NOTHING LIKE AN EASY SET OF TAFS THIS WEEK...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
THE STUBBORN CLOUDS FINALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND STRONGER
WINDS. BUT, THAT WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE LOWEST CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WITH THE WOODWARD AIRPORT STAYING AT OR
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS TRUE, THE OBSERVATION SITE AT
KWWR ISN'T QUITE MATCHING SURROUNDING OBS SITES (SHOWING 1/4 MILE
AND LIGHT SNOW/RAIN AND 40+ DEGREES). WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY BE
SUSPECT (OR MAY NOT), THE LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FLYING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW VFR.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A MIX OF CLOUD COVER, WITH LIGHT FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS COMING BACK TO THE SAME SITES WE SAW THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE FORECASTS DROPS QUITE A BIT AFTER 12 HOURS, SO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE AREAS FOR IFR
LATER.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 41 63 43 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 60 38 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 42 68 45 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 53 34 64 38 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 55 38 63 39 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 45 65 47 / 70 30 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21
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