620
FXUS64 KOUN 282341
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
541 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
- WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR THE RED
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (E.G., -20 TO -21 DEG C AT 500 MB). ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT
OF STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
FOR LATER TONIGHT, AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S DEG F.
ON MONDAY, A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT,
EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY--ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA WILL RISE INTO THE 70S DEG F. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ~20 DEG F ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY, THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT AS A DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASS WILL COUNTER THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 850 MB FLOW WILL QUITE STRONG (~50 KNOTS) BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. VERTICAL MIXING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH (OR HIGHER) AT
THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A
COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
MAHALE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPORARILY LEADING TO
MVFR/IFR IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 63 43 66 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 38 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 68 45 75 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 34 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 63 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 45 65 47 71 / 30 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
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