068
FXUS64 KOUN 291714
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
- WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING FOG AND CLOUD COVER (DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM), SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FROM
THE WEST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
PLEASANT AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RESPOND INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS RATHER
LIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. EVEN
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEFORE
SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE
LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS (SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST, SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, THESE WINDS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WILL BE MORE OF A
DOWNSLOPE, COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WIND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANY
KIND OF DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO MIX DOWN AND RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS COMBINATION ALONG ERC
VALUES IN THE 55 TO 65 PERCENTILE WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEST, SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAIN UP AND
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING COOLER AIR SOUTH OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE WINDS, TUESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS
HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING A REINFORCING SHOT OF PERHAPS
EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW YEAR. HOWEVER,
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS MIGHT BE AND
WHETHER IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR IS FELT MORE FARTHER
EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST TIME FRAME MODELS ARE INDICATING A VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF, LEAVING HIGH CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE INSTEAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH ONLY THE WINDS TO WORRY ABOUT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND AT KDUA.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER. WINDS TRULY BEGIN TO PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING, ONCE THE
SUN COMES OUT AND MIXING CAN BEGIN. WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS
RAMPING UP. 700MB AND 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 35-45 KNOT
RANGE TOMORROW MORNING, SO IF THESE FORECASTS ARE WRONG, THE
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WOULD HIT EARLIER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THE
18Z TAFS.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 41 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 45 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 39 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 39 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 65 49 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21
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