766
FXUS64 KOUN 300348
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
948 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. FOG IS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT MAY
DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA--INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO--AS TEMPERATURES MAY SUFFICIENTLY COOL TO WHERE THE DEW
POINTS BEING ADVECTED IN ARE HIGHER THAN THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
ON MONDAY, A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
ACCELERATE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS LINE.
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S DEG F ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH 60S DEG F ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ~20
DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY, THE COLD AIR WILL LAG
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AS A DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL COUNTER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. NORTHWESTERLY 850 MB
FLOW WILL QUITE STRONG (~50 KNOTS) BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT--
ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH NOON. VERTICAL MIXING OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO >40
MPH AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(E.G., THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE EARLIER) GIVEN THE
STRONGER 850 MB FLOW AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE
FORECAST EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE IN
MISSOURI BY 00Z. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NOW.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS GUSTY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
SECONDARY SURGE, WHICH WILL BRING COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN TO BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK (THOUGH NOTHING TOO COLD FOR DECEMBER). ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY APPROACH TOWARD LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THAT THERE COULD BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
MAHALE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING A REINFORCING SHOT OF PERHAPS
EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW YEAR. HOWEVER,
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS MIGHT BE AND
WHETHER IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR IS FELT MORE FARTHER
EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST TIME FRAME MODELS ARE INDICATING A VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
THE STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY REDEVELOPING
AND SPREADING INTO KDUA AS HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY TO STARTS
MOVING BACK INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKELY (60%) THAT IFR (OR AS BEST MVFR)
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT KOKC, KOUN, KSWO AND KPNC MONDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
AREA AND THEN MOVING OUT AFTER 4 OR 5 HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AND
INCREASE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 68 37 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 40 71 37 51 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 43 75 39 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 66 30 47 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 63 36 47 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 48 72 42 54 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...21
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