116
FXUS64 KOUN 301750
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TODAY.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
ALREADY SEEING SURFACE WINDS RESPOND TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THIS WILL MEAN
ADVECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST SCOURING OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.
ALSO, THE VEERED FLOW WILL ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS, RESULTING IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO GET PUSHED SOUTH AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. SO, ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR WILL
LAG SOME BEHIND THE FRONT, IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME AREAS TO
BEGIN TO SEE SOME DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WE
WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
70S.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW (45KTS TO 50KTS AT 850MB) MAY MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHERE GUSTS WELL ABOVE 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON
AREA AND LENGTH OF TIME THESE GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR. WILL STILL BE
LOOKING AT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER. THE
COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST, STRONG NORTH WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLIER IN THE DAY, COMPARED TO WHEN THE RH
WILL BE AT A MINIMUM (MID/LATE AFTERNOON) WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AT
THAT TIME AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. LEANING TOWARD GOING WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THIS
REASON.
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS MODEST CAA CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST WITH 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GIVE US A
BREAK.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
MUCH COOLER DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOME CAA CONTINUES TO BRING
COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CONUS AND SOUTH WIND BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
QUICKLY DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO BACK INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY WE SEE ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM COME INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS QUICKLY OCCUR, BRINGING SOUTH WINDS
BACK AS WELL AS SOME GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTH, POTENTIALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SURGE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS, BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 40KTS (ESPECIALLY NW OK). WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE FOR PNC - SWO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A MID- LEVEL SYSTEM CLIPS THE AREA. INCREASING CIRRUS
DECK IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS W/NW OK AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM.
DAVIES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 48 27 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 36 51 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 54 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 30 47 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 35 47 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 42 54 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>017-022.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25
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