353
FXUS64 KOUN 302338
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- POTENTIALLY TURNING EVEN COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RISE AND WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SURGE ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(THOUGH NOT AS GUSTY AS WE HAD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS).
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
A COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S
WAKE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOME
LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A WEAK,
REINFORCING (DRY) COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY APPROACH TOWARD SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION--ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS COLDER TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, THE
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
SYNOPTICALLY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE ON SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
HIGHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THIS MEANS THE
COLD AIR MASS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL.
FOR EXAMPLE, EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (REASONABLY, HOW COLD COULD IT BE?) HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S DEG F WHILE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE (REASONABLY, HOW WARM COULD IT BE?) HAS HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S DEG (WHICH IS AROUND AVERAGE). FOR LOW TEMPERATURES,
THE 10TH PERCENTILE ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS AND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ARE IN THE 20S DEG F. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT'LL DEPEND ON SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES (WHICH ARE MORE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST THAN JUST SURFACE TEMPERATURES). BOTTOM LINE: IT'LL
LIKELY GET COLDER...BUT HOW COLD AND FOR HOW LONG REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.
MAHALE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 156 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CONUS AND SOUTH WIND BRING SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT QUICKLY DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SO BACK INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY WE SEE ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM COME INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS QUICKLY OCCUR, BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS BACK AS WELL AS SOME GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTH,
POTENTIALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SURGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS, BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING
MORE DUE NORTH. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL NIGHTS, VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 37 49 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 37 51 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 38 55 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 30 47 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 36 47 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 42 55 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
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