144
FXUS64 KOUN 160509
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
- A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS (ON ELEVATED/GRASSY SURFACES) ARE EXPECTED,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT FROM WEST-CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE COMING HOURS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEING USHERED IN AS A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA) HAVE
LIKELY EXPERIENCED THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.
CONCERN FOR A SHORT-DURATION WINTER WEATHER EPISODE IS ALSO
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION,
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS,
TRAVELING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ~SUNSET. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
NEAR/JUST ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME, THE COMBINATION OF
<32-DEGREE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES, A POCKET OF VERY COLD
(-25-DEGREES CELSIUS) MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVING OVERHEAD AND
POTENTIAL FOR (BRIEF) MODERATE INTENSITY RATES INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TODAY. WITH A WARM
LAYER EVIDENT (12Z SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE) AT ~800 MB/1 KM,
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A SLEET/RAIN COMBO BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW.
AS ADVERTISED PREVIOUSLY, OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT (A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO A 0.5-1 INCH) AND LIMITED TO
ELEVATED/GRASSY SURFACES. WITH WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, IMPACT TO
COMMON TRAVEL SURFACES IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MODERATE INTENSITY SNOWFALL AND CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY (1 MILE OR LESS) WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE A CONCERN FOR EAST-WEST ROADWAYS. PRECIPITATION AND ANY TRAVEL
IMPACT SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS BY 6-9 PM THIS EVENING.
A VERY COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S TO LOW-20S. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP BELOW-ZERO
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LOW-IMPACT AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM SHORT WAVE RIDGING
TOWARDS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. ON SUNDAY, THE
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (30S) ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK (UPPER-40S NORTH TO UPPER-50S SOUTH), WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN EMERGING DURING THE DAY. NIL PRECIPITATION
CHANCE IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS TIME.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A PERIOD OF
IMPACTFUL WINTER PRECIPITATION AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS SHOULD
STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
UNGAR
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION OF THE
CONUS TUESDAY MORNING WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN OF TEXAS. THUS, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE TRICKY BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL
VARYING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE FRONTAL
TIMING. THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE THE FRONT COMING IN SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND BEING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, SOME AREAS (MOST LIKELY NORTH OF
I-40) WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADILY DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR MASS.
THERE IS A WARM AND COLD MODEL BIAS FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING. THE MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE NBM HAD SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH FELL ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. KNOWING
TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY REMAIN STEADY OR DROP THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED TO BETTER MEET THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT WERE LOWERED FROM NBM TO MAINTAIN THE
PROPER TREND OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
CONTINUING WITH THE THEME OF TEMPERATURES, DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN SOUTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SUB-ZERO BY THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT, BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF NEARLY -10 TO -20
DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE FRIGID CONDITIONS AND EXTENDED EXPOSURE COULD
LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA AND/OR FROSTBITE. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS, PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO FROZEN PIPES UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CAN REBOUND TO ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH IS MOSTLY LIKELY
NOT GOING TO BE UNTIL FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR). ONCE
AGAIN, FRONTAL TIMING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND TRANSITION ZONES. HOWEVER, WITH THE PUSH OF VERY COLD AIR INTO
OKLAHOMA THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEING THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SOUTH OF I-40,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
850MB FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SO DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING, THE FRONT ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES. AS THE 850MB FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE COLD
AIR ERODES THE WARM NOSE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH (50- 80%) CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE IS
A MEDIUM (40-50%) CHANCE FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON THE ROADWAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
STRATUS DECK WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING TERMINALS
KOKC & KOUN THROUGH 07Z THEN GOING VFR TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HOURS
LONGER AT TERMINALS KDUA & KCSM. OTHERWISE, ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY AT LEAST UNTIL 18Z
THEN BECOMING LIGHTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 19 37 22 / 40 30 0 0
HOBART OK 42 21 42 23 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 24 44 25 / 10 30 0 0
GAGE OK 35 15 40 22 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 15 34 18 / 50 30 0 0
DURANT OK 59 24 42 24 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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