594
FXUS64 KOUN 160940
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
BREEZY EARLY MORNING WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. DESPITE THE COLD
FRONT YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH THE
COLDEST AIR DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER SUNNY SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, ALONG WITH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TODAY. TONIGHT, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A STREAM OF INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE INTO THE
20S BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY, A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PLEASANT TEMPERATURES (COMPARED
TO WHAT IS AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK) IN THE UPPER 40S
TO 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME UPPER LOW NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT BROUGHT SATURDAY'S FRONT, WILL BE THE
CULPRIT FOR ANOTHER FRONT TUESDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA FASTER, WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING THE COLD AIR IN QUICKER AS WELL. BY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GRADIENT
DRIVEN WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY SEE A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DESPITE THE FASTER SURFACE FRONT TIMING, THE FRONT AROUND 850MB IS
STILL PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 8-10 HOURS BEHIND WITH THE DEEPER COLD
AIRMASS. SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE DROP, SNOW
CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS, AHEAD OF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, A WARM NOSE WILL RESULT IN RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT, THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW.
THERE IS A HIGH (70%) CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE FROM
NORMAN TO ARDMORE TO DURANT. THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-50%) CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
DECREASE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-
70%) CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
INTO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST (>70%) CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW AND A MEDIUM (50-70%) CHANCE FOR UP
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SNOW RATIOS ARE
HIGHER THAN 10:1 AND CLOSER TO 15:1 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WITH THIS EVENT AND THEREFORE IT WON'T TAKE AS MUCH QPF TO
GENERATE AN INCH OF SNOW. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION
BANDING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE 850MB LOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DUE TO
THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. NBM
75TH PERCENTILE IS SHOWING UP TO 8-10 INCHES IN THE AREA OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WATCH. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
CONCERNS WITH INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES AND POST-FRONTAL WINDY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. OVERALL,
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ICE IS LIKELY TO
BRING MODERATE IMPACTS TO DRIVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLUMMETING THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONGOING WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SINGLE DIGIT TO SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO END EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
IN FACT, THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE BREEZY NORTH WINDS COUPLED WITH SUB-ZERO TO
SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES. THUS, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
DESPITE LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6 PM TUESDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY FOR THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND/OR HYPOTHERMIA.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY
AND EVEN THEN, SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TOWARDS THE
50S AND 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
STRATUS DECK WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING TERMINALS
KOKC & KOUN THROUGH 07Z THEN GOING VFR TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HOURS
LONGER AT TERMINALS KDUA & KCSM. OTHERWISE, ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY AT LEAST UNTIL 18Z
THEN BECOMING LIGHTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 37 23 49 27 / 0 0 0 30
HOBART OK 41 24 53 26 / 0 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 43 25 56 41 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 38 23 51 14 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 33 18 43 17 / 0 0 0 50
DURANT OK 41 25 51 41 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ006>008-012-013-020.
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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