040
FXUS64 KOUN 170446
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A REINFORCED/COLD AIRMASS, IN THE
WAKE OF OUR SATURDAY WINTER SYSTEM, REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING AT WELL BELOW-
AVERAGE READINGS AREAWIDE, REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (DESPITE SUNNY SKIES).
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUD COVER, AS MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-10S
(FAR NORTHEAST) TO 20S CAN BE EXPECTED.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY: THE MOST PLEASANT DAYTIME CONDITIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
ARE EXPECTED. A QUICKLY ADVANCING UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO INSTIGATE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL FOSTER THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND "WARMER" CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. PORTIONS OF WESTERN-
NORTH TEXAS MAY REACH 60-DEGREES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
40S/50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS OKLAHOMA (COOLEST FAR NORTHEAST/PONCA
CITY VICINITY). GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS (UP TO 25-30 MPH) ARE ALSO
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
THE GRADIENT IN SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE SHARPEST.
TUESDAY & TUESDAY NIGHT: AN IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER AND EXTREME
COLD EPISODE REMAINS POISED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
MIDWEEK, BEGINNING EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW/ICE
AND DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST.
- TIMING: WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN BY AS EARLY AS 12 AM ON
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WITH CHANCES
EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN BY AS EARLY AS 3-6 AM ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND TOWARDS
MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE FORECASTED PROGRESSION
OF THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT, AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR MAY BEGIN AS MOSTLY A COLD RAIN, BEFORE QUICK
TRANSITION TOWARDS WINTER MODES OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CESSATION OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TOWARDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
- LOCATIONS: MANY/MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. THE DURATION OF SUCH CONCERN, AND
ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL, WILL GENERALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LOCALES
MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, AREAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY (EAST/SOUTH OF ~HENRIETTA
TX-TISHOMINGO OK LINE) MAY ONLY EXPERIENCE A SHORT DURATION PERIOD
DURING THE MID-TO-LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART.
- AMOUNTS: ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THERE REMAINS HIGH (60-90%)
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A
~CHEYENNE-OKC/SHAWNEE LINE, WITH LESSER (20-40%) CHANCES ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED WITH THIS UPDATE (NOW ~3-6") ACROSS NORTHERN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS REMAINING FOCUSED
IN AREAS NEAR ~ENID/PONCA CITY/STILLWATER. LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, AND IN A REASONABLE "WORST CASE
SCENARIO", LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF UP TO 10" COULD MATERIALIZE
ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A WINTER STORM WATCH
COVERS AREAS WHERE HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS (>4") ARE MOST PLAUSIBLE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION IS ALSO APPARENT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WITH SIGNAL FOR A LAGGING
850/700 MB FRONT, A WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY PERSIST DESPITE RAPID
COOLING BELOW/NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (AND PERHAPS SLEET) ON THURSDAY MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH, WHERE AT LEAST LIGHT ICE (<0.10") TOTALS ARE
PROGGED. SHOULD THE WARM NOSE BE MORE PRONOUNCED/PERSISTENT THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES, THEN ICE TOTALS COULD APPROACH 0.15-
0.20" IN SPOTS.
- IMPACTS: TRAVEL IMPACTS (TO VARYING DURATION/INTENSITY) ARE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST
PROLONGED AND SEVERE IMPACT TO TRAVEL CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN AREAS
NORTH OF AN ~ELK CITY-TO-ATOKA LINE. WHILE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR, MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN DURATION (AND
ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS) OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS, EXPECT
ROADS TO BECOME SLICK AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SOON AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES YOUR LOCATION (WITH PRECIPITATION AND PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS). BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME A CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL AREAS (NORTHERN
ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA), WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTS BEYOND TRAVEL (POWER
INFRASTRUCTURE/VEGETATION) ARE CURRENTLY LOW (<30%) AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. WE WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR EXPECTED ICE TOTALS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA,
AS IF TOTALS INCREASE GIVEN EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR POWER
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT WOULD EXIST.
- UNCERTAINTIES/"WHAT WE ARE WATCHING": BEYOND THE USUAL
QUESTIONS IN TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS THAT PERVADE FORECASTING AT
+2-3 DAYS FROM AN EVENT, A FEW OTHER METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER COMING FORECAST UPDATES.
* WARM LAYER(S) ALOFT/"THE WARM NOSE": AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LAGGING
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL FEATURES (COMPARED TO THE SURFACE
FRONT/FREEZING LINE) ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW INTENSE/LAGGED THESE FEATURES
ARE, A MORE PERSISTENT ROUND OF EITHER MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPES OR FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR AND BE SPREAD
FURTHER NORTH (NORTHERN OKLAHOMA) THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
* MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES: GIVEN PROGGED TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE PLAUSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR (EVEN
BRIEFLY) THEN WINTER PRECIPITATION TOTALS (MAINLY SNOW) WOULD
TREND TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
IN ADDITION TO WINTER PRECIPITATION, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT, BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING, WITH CONVERSION TO EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS LIKELY OVER THE COMING UPDATES. SEE THE LONG TERM SECTION
FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION ON THIS THREAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO END EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
IN FACT, THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE BREEZY NORTH WINDS COUPLED WITH SUB-ZERO TO
SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES. THUS, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
DESPITE LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6 PM TUESDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY FOR THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND/OR HYPOTHERMIA.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY
AND EVEN THEN, SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TOWARDS THE
50S AND 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENING LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z AND FURTHER VEERING THE
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY BY 16Z AS WINDSPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 KTS
GUSTING 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST AFTER 01Z
BECOMING LIGHTER WITH DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 23 47 27 30 / 0 0 30 90
HOBART OK 24 52 27 29 / 0 0 10 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 26 54 40 42 / 0 0 0 70
GAGE OK 22 50 13 15 / 0 0 20 70
PONCA CITY OK 19 44 17 18 / 0 0 40 100
DURANT OK 25 52 40 40 / 0 0 10 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-020.
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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