421
FXUS64 KOUN 170949
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. TONIGHT, THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS AIRMASS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN TO SNOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP.
LASTLY, THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH OF I-40 (AHEAD OF THE
FRONT) IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THANKS TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SNOW AND ICE, ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WARM NOSE AROUND
800-850MB REMAINS PRESENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THEREFORE THE
TIMING OF THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPES DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
THE DEEPER COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLIER ON TUESDAY, RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
WINTRY MIX ZONE. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONS TO
SLEET. AREAS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE WARM
NOSE AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO PUSH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST. INITIAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION RATES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
RATES. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO SETUP NEAR
THE KS/OK STATE LINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, BUT WITH THE SHIFT IN THE HIGHER
QPF EAST ALSO MEANS A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4
INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT GIVEN
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT WESTWARD, THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. ONE INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO
GUTHRIE. LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ELK CITY TO LAWTON TO ATOKA. AT LEAST A
GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA JUST NORTH OF
I-40 DOWN TO THE RED RIVER, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
I-44 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHERE UP TO A TENTH TO FIFTEEN
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE REMAINS POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE GREATEST.
ADDITIONALLY, HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW AND FURTHER INCREASE THE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND/OR SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO ACCUMULATION
OF ICE AND/OR SLEET, ESPECIALLY ALONG ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS
BRIDGES. THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES AND BROKEN TREE LIMBS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE
COLDEST DURING THE WEEK DUE TO LINGERING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
SINGLE DIGIT TO SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR, WHILE SOUTH OF I-44 WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
SUB-FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
SUB-ZERO NORTH OF I-44 THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. THEREFORE, ANY ICE
OR SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED THE DAY PRIOR WILL MOSTLY LIKELY STICK
AROUND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SNOWPACK MAY CONTINUE TO EXIST. THE SURFACE
BY FRIDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT DUG THE FRIGID AIRMASS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY,
WELCOMED TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL HELP TO MELT AWAY ANY LAST BIT
OF SNOWPACK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AT MOST A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENING LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z AND FURTHER VEERING THE
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY BY 16Z AS WINDSPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 KTS
GUSTING 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST AFTER 01Z
BECOMING LIGHTER WITH DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 25 27 1 / 0 20 100 40
HOBART OK 50 24 26 2 / 0 10 70 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 39 39 7 / 0 0 70 10
GAGE OK 47 11 12 -4 / 0 20 70 10
PONCA CITY OK 43 14 16 -2 / 0 40 100 50
DURANT OK 51 38 38 13 / 0 10 100 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-020.
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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