247
FXUS64 KOUN 172140
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL FEEL LIKE A "HEAT WAVE". MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAPTURES
AN UPPER SYSTEM (OUR MIDWEEK WEATHER MAKER) SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, PROMOTING INCREASED CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS RATON. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME HAS EMERGED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, WITH
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS (AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH) AND WARMER
CONDITIONS (60S ACROSS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS) CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER PRECIPITATION EPISODE WILL BEGIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA). SEE SHORT TERM FOR
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS EVENT.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER AND EXTREME COLD EPISODE WILL IMPACT
THE WFO NORMAN AREA DURING THE MIDWEEK, BEGINNING DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW/ICE AND
DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED BY MOST.
- TIMING: THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AT A PARTICULAR
LOCATION WILL BE HIGHLY CORRELATED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. AT THIS UPDATE,
THIS MAY BEGIN/OCCUR BY AS EARLY AS 12 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WITH CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH TIME. STILL EXPECT THE
BEGINNING OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE 2-6 AM TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA/FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PERHAPS NEARING SUNSET ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE MORNING, PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THE COLD AIRMASS/FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD FASTER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME. THUS,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE (IF NOT LIKELY) THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE REORIENTS
(SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST) TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT
WOULD BE DIFFERING PRECIPITATION MODES (FREEZING RAIN VS. RAIN)
ACROSS POTENTIALLY SMALL LATITUDINAL (EAST-WEST) DISTANCES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION TOWARDS FREEZING DRIZZLE/WINTRY MIX BEFORE SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA LOCALS ON A SIMILAR LATITUDE. WHILE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD DEPART FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING (9-11 PM) TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOWARDS 12 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY, IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER TOWARDS AT LEAST DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY (SEE 'IMPACTS' SECTION BELOW).
- LOCATIONS: MANY/MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. THE DURATION OF SUCH CONCERN, AND
ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL, WILL GENERALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LOCALES
MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, AREAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY (EAST/SOUTH OF ~HENRIETTA
TX-TISHOMINGO OK) MAY ONLY EXPERIENCE A SHORT DURATION PERIOD
DURING THE MID-TO-LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART.
-AMOUNTS: CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, SLEET AND ICE CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
~ELK CITY-HOLDENVILLE LINE, WITH LESSER (30-50%) CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (WHERE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
WILL BE MORE PROLONGED). STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF
4-8 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INTO NORTH- CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS REMAINING FOCUSED IN AREAS NEAR
~ENID/PONCA CITY/STILLWATER. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE, AND IN A REASONABLE "WORST CASE SCENARIO", LOCALIZED
CORRIDORS OF UP TO 9-10 INCHES COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOW TOTALS ON THE SOUTH/WEST SIDE OF ANY HIGHER
ACCUMULATION AXIS (I.E., CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) A PREVIOUS
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR AREAS WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 4
INCHES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION IS ALSO APPARENT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. COMPARED TO PAST UPDATES, THE RATE OF COLUMN COOLING FROM
THE SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE LAYER LOOKS RAPID ENOUGH THAT ANY PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS CONFINED (~1-3 HOURS).
STILL, RATES ME BE HIGH ENOUGH TO YIELD UP TO 0.1-0.15 INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION, MOST ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/I-40 CORRIDOR. WARM (>0-DEGREE CELSIUS) 700 MB
TEMPERATURES, PERHAPS RESULTING FROM A STRONG WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPED
COMPONENT, ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON
FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE
SLEET AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA MAY SEE UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION.
- IMPACTS: TRAVEL IMPACTS (TO VARYING DURATION/INTENSITY) REMAIN
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST
PROLONGED AND SEVERE IMPACT TO TRAVEL CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN AREAS
NORTH OF AN ~ELK CITY-TO-ATOKA LINE. WHILE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR, MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN DURATION (AND
ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS) OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS, EXPECT
ROADS TO BECOME SLICK AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SOON AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES YOUR LOCATION (WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS). BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME A CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL
AREAS (NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA), WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS BEYOND TRAVEL (POWER INFRASTRUCTURE/VEGETATION) REMAIN
LOW AND FOCUSED IN AREAS WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION
(~I-40 CORRIDOR). GIVEN EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS, EVEN A SLIGHT
UPTREND IN ICE ACCRETION COULD LEAD TO GREATER CONCERN FOR IMPACTS
OF THIS NATURE
- UNCERTAINTIES/"WHAT WE ARE WATCHING": WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
FEW DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THAT WILL LIKELY PROVE IMPACTFUL TO
ULTIMATE OUTCOMES.
* WARM LAYER(S) ALOFT/"THE WARM NOSE"/DRY AIR: AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
A POCKET OF WARM (~750-700 MB) TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (PRIOR
TO MORE SUSTAINED/STRONG COLD ADVECTION). CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS WILL AID IN A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF SLEET/WINTRY MIX
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SLEET HAS INCREASED OVER SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. IN ADDITION, WITH A
QUASI-DOWNSLOPED CHARACTER TO THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, A DRY LAYER
REMAINS EVIDENT BELOW THE "WARM NOSE". THIS MAY ACT TO DAMPEN
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS DURING
THE DAY.
* MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES: SIGNAL FOR A MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS (POTENTIALLY UP TO "WORST CASE" AMOUNTS), WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN ULTIMATE TRACK/POSITION. SOMETHING TO MONITOR
IN NOWCAST UPDATES ON TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION TO WINTER PRECIPITATION, THERE REMAINS NEAR-CERTAINTY
THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS BY TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOW SINGLE-DIGITS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TO BELOW-ZERO VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD
BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED, WITH THIS THREAT
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS -25 TO -30-DEGREES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT, BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SNOWPACK MAY CONTINUE TO EXIST. THE SURFACE
BY FRIDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT DUG THE FRIGID AIRMASS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY,
WELCOMED TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL HELP TO MELT AWAY ANY LAST BIT
OF SNOWPACK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AT MOST A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING CLOSER TO NORTHEASTERLY NEAR DAYBREAK.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN TO THE SOUTH, A
WINTRY MIX IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND SNOW IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
TRANSITION TO SNOW/WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 26 27 3 14 / 40 80 40 0
HOBART OK 24 26 3 19 / 20 60 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 40 10 24 / 10 70 10 0
GAGE OK 11 13 -6 15 / 30 70 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 14 15 -2 11 / 70 100 50 0
DURANT OK 37 38 14 25 / 20 90 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ004-009-010-014>019-021>031.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ032>048-050.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ083>090.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>086-090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
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