793
FXUS64 KOUN 181205
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WELL BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WHAT'S CHANGED:
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND AMOUNTS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. OVERALL THE 00Z CAM GUIDANCE
AND SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM HAVE LOWERED QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, NECESSITATING A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, AND UNSURPRISINGLY, THE COLD FRONT AND
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OUTPACE MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION TYPES WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE DETAILS OF WHAT WE EXPECT TODAY CAN BE
FOUND BELOW.
AMOUNTS:
WE STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS, WITH THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THIS BAND
LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE TAIL END OF THE
BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT 00Z CAM
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EASTWARD, DECREASING
TOTALS SOME IN OUR AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE NOW SHOW A
SWATH OF 2-7" AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA,
HIGHEST ACROSS KAY/NOBLE COUNTIES AND DECREASING WITH WESTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW FORECASTING SUB-WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING,
NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS GIVEN SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MESOSCALE
BAND. 1-3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS HERE FOR AREAS EAST/NORTH OF I-35/I-40.
THE HIGHEST ICE ACCRETION POTENTIAL IS TRENDING SOUTHWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING, WE NOW EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SLEET/SNOW ACROSS THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND OKC METRO AREA. A DRY SLOT WILL LIMIT DEEP SATURATION
ABOVE 700 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THESE AREAS, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT QPF HERE. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND A DUSTING
TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MESOSCALE SNOW
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD INCREASE TOTALS SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY FROM OKC NORTH AND EASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH/EAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ICE ACCRETION UP TO 0.10", WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.15-0.2" POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35. FINALLY, SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT AND SEE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A
GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE.
IMPACTS:
EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS FORECAST, THE OVERALL
IMPACT REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR OUR AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM
WARNING AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ICE AND/OR SNOW LEADING TO
SLICK ROADWAYS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
CONCERN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
ICE ACCRETION GENERALLY STAYING AROUND OR UNDER 0.10" IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO POWER INFRASTRUCTURE AND
VEGETATION, WITH THE CHANCE FOR POWER OUTAGES REMAINING LOW.
FINALLY, AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA, SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -10 (SOUTH) TO NEAR -30
(NORTH) EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ROADS COULD ALSO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO PREVIOUSLY FALLEN
SNOW/ICE. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
DROP TO -5 TO -15 DEGREES, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES -5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT MODERATION ON THURSDAY.
WARE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA, BUT SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SUBDUE THIS
WARMING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR HIGHS. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS
HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SUNDAY. THE WARMING TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN HIGHS COULD REACH
THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS (HARD TO IMAGINE CURRENTLY). OUTSIDE OF
SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SATURDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
MVFR ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY AT ALL SITES. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT OF
THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AT PNC/SWO, AND MAYBE EVEN LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
TO SNOW THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND SUNSET AND COMPLETELY ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POST-FRONTAL BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 22 2 14 1 / 80 40 0 0
HOBART OK 20 1 19 2 / 60 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 6 23 6 / 80 10 0 0
GAGE OK 10 -5 16 -3 / 60 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 13 -2 12 -6 / 100 70 0 0
DURANT OK 38 12 25 8 / 90 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004-
009-010-014>019-021>031.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
OKZ032>048-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR OKZ051-052.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ083>090.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...23
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