148
FXUS64 KOUN 182358
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR WELL BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS THROUGH 12 PM ON
THURSDAY.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION, TRANSITIONING TOWARDS MAINLY SLEET/SNOW,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH VERY LATE THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER PRECIPITATION AND DANGEROUS COLD EPISODE IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO, WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY ~MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS, MOST OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. IN THE MEANTIME,
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE, ALONG THE ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT, WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD AND
DEEPEN ACROSS BRYAN/ATOKA COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM. THE LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL NOT "COOL" ENOUGH, FOSTERING
CONTINUED SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS/FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MOST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN
OR JUST BELOW THE DGZ, BUT THIS HAS (OR WILL) GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL UP TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH/WEST (WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA). PARTS OF WESTERN-NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANGE
TO SNOW GRAINS/LIGHT SNOW AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE COOLS
CLOSER TO -10 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH ONLY MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED HERE. A WINTER STORM WARMING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 6 AM, WHERE
HEAVIEST TOTALS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING EXISTS. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE UNTIL 12 AM
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL WILL PERSIST INTO
(AT LEAST) WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND (GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH) WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
COMBINED WITH NEAR/BELOW-ZERO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES (AS LOW AS -20 TO -25-DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA) ARE EXPECTED. EVEN INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA, DAYBREAK WIND CHILLS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW-
ZERO. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS MAINTAINED AREAWIDE
(THROUGH THURSDAY). ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING, SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS/ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A 1052 MB HIGH, CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS, WILL BUILD SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DECREASE IN CLOUDS IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE VERY COLD AND QUASI-SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY (THOUGH
MINIMAL IMPACT/ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED).
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 20TH (THURSDAY):
OKC: 9 (1918) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 3
LAWTON: 9 (1978) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 6
WICHITA FALLS: 16 (2021) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 7
THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM BROAD
CYCLONIC TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO CIRCULATE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL DAILY RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA, BUT SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SUBDUE THIS
WARMING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR HIGHS. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS
HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SUNDAY. THE WARMING TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN HIGHS COULD REACH
THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS (HARD TO IMAGINE CURRENTLY). OUTSIDE OF
SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SATURDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOCAL AREAS WHERE CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED
ABOVE 030 AND INFO VFR CATEGORY, CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
OR IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME
FLURRIES MAY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING
KDUA. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT, ALTHOUGH MOST SITES
WILL BECOME VFR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 3 16 3 20 / 50 0 0 0
HOBART OK 3 22 2 25 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 8 24 7 27 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK -6 17 -1 24 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 0 14 -5 17 / 60 10 0 0
DURANT OK 12 25 9 29 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004-
009-010-014>019-021>048-050>052.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-020.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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