227
FXUS64 KOUN 191133
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WELL BELOW- ZERO WIND CHILLS THROUGH 12 PM ON THURSDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES, PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS
THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ROADS REMAIN ICE/SNOW COVERED AND HAZARDOUS IN
MANY SPOTS. THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR -25 IN THE NORTH/WEST TO -10 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN FRIGID THROUGH THE DAY,
STAYING BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE. AIR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD TONIGHT WITH READINGS OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF QUITE COLD AND IT APPEARS WE WILL
LIKELY BREAK SEVERAL RECORD LOWS AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 20TH (THURSDAY):
OKC: 9 (1918) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 3
LAWTON: 9 (1978) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 6
WICHITA FALLS: 16 (2021) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 7
WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, COLD ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND TWENTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL ALSO HELP
WARM TEMPS A BIT MORE (THOUGH STILL CHILLY), WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BECOME MORE ZONAL
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW ATTAINS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FROM THE
LOW 50S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT APPEARS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN AND NOT OVERLY COLD.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO VFR BY THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY FILL IN AGAIN TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW SO SCT CLOUD DECKS WERE MAINTAINED. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 15 2 21 7 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 18 3 25 9 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 21 7 27 15 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 15 -1 24 5 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 13 -4 17 1 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 24 9 29 18 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...23
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