900
FXUS64 KOUN 192053
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THIS MORNING, A STRONG 1053MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM A MINIMUM OF
MINUS 44 DEGREES IN HETTINGER, ND (NATIONWIDE LOW) TO -3 DEGREES
IN NEWKIRK,OK. RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AT
OKC, LAWTON, AND WICHITA FALLS.
RECORD COLD HIGHS (FEB. 19)
OKC: 25 (1918)
LAWTON: 27 (1929)
WICHITA FALLS: 30 (1929)
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA, EASTERN KANSAS, AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THIS OCCURS,
BREEZY NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE WINDS
AT 10 TO 20MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY I-40 AND SOUTHWARD, AND LIGHTER WINDS NORTHWARD. THE
COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CO-LOCATED IN PROXIMITY TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH MEANS PARTS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (E.G., PONCA CITY AND NEWKIRK) WILL HAVE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF OUR FA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND, CAMS HAVE SUGGESTED
SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WIND CHILL
VALUES WITHIN THE -5 TO -10 DEG RANGE ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40
WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -20 NORTHWARD (ESPECIALLY OVER KAY COUNTY).
WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA, WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE DECREASING LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THE DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA
AND NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN "REBOUNDING" THURSDAY
(TEENS AND 20'S). HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
(7 DEG) AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (4 DEG). GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH, AND ECMWF AND CANADIAN SYSTEMS TRENDING COLDER, WE OPTED
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AREA A BIT.
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MANY OF OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY, THOUGH WE MAY NOT QUITE REACH 32 DEG FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH THE INITIATION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (SOME OF THE
HREF MEMBERS). WAA IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND MODELED QPF IS ZERO; NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
PERHAPS LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS NEARING THE RECORD LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
OKC: 9 (1918) 9 (1939) 11 (1963)
LAWTON: 9 (1978) 12 (1939) 16 (1978)
WICHITA FALLS: 16 (2021) 12 (1939) 18 (1968)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW ATTAINS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
FROM THE LOW 50S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT APPEARS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN AND
NOT OVERLY COLD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS (2K-6K FT)
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, BUT ANY
SNOW SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 1 20 7 31 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 1 22 7 33 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 6 27 13 37 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK -3 21 3 33 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK -5 16 2 26 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 9 28 18 37 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06
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