854
FXUS64 KOUN 201122
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
522 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR -5 TO -15 DEGREE
WIND CHILLS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
ONE MORE MORNING OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH READINGS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY. WE HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD LOWS AT OUR 3 CLIMATE
SITES AS OF 2AM, SO IT'S JUST A MATTER OF SEEING HOW FAR WE DROP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR
TODAY AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOWS:
OKC: 9 (1918) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 2
LAWTON: 9 (1978) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 5
WICHITA FALLS: 16 (2021) -- CURRENT FORECAST: 6
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY'S
READINGS BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY; TEENS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND TWENTIES ELSEWHERE. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW A SIGNAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS FAIRLY DRY SO NOT MUCH
MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS NEARING THE RECORD LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.
FRIDAY SATURDAY
OKC: 9 (1939) 11 (1963)
LAWTON: 12 (1939) 16 (1978)
WICHITA FALLS: 12 (1939) 18 (1968)
OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE UPWARDS AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE 30S IN MOST
PLACES OUTSIDE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
ON SATURDAY, WITH MODELS NOW TRENDING A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER
TO OUR AREA. THIS HAS BROUGHT A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING, NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DOWNSLOPED
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (<15%)
AT THE MOMENT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING A
DRASTIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY REMAINING IN
THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 20 7 31 17 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 23 7 32 16 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 26 14 36 19 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 22 4 33 16 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 18 3 26 12 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 28 18 36 21 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...23
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