218
FXUS64 KOUN 202344
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS,
BUT WILL BEGIN TO DO SO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY LATE AFTERNOON OVER
FAR W/NW OKLAHOMA AND THEN EASTERLY THIS EVENING, ELSEWHERE. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL CAA SHUTS OFF AND WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WAA.
THE DYNAMIC ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP RAISE
AIR TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. STILL, RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL THREE
OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.
RECORDS TO WATCH FRIDAY MORNING:
OKC: 9 (1939)
LAWTON: 12 (1939)
WICHITA FALLS: 12 (1939)
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 DEG (NORTHWEST OK) TO NEAR
ZERO (SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL OK), AND NEAR 5 DEG (WESTERN NORTH TX,
SOUTH- CENTRAL OK). IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE
HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLOUD-COVER DIMINISHES RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND MAKES WAY FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. HOWEVER, SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUDS COULD
TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH. WINDS SWING TO THE SOUTH AREA-WIDE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-20'S (NORTH-CENTRAL OK) TO NEAR FREEZING MARK (CENTRAL,
WESTERN OK) TO MID-30'S (SOUTH OK, WESTERN NORTH TX). THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR AREA AND WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING FLOW RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
LEAVE IT'S LAST IMPRINT ON OUR AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS.
RECORDS TO WATCH SATURDAY MORNING:
LAWTON: 16 (1978)
WICHITA FALLS: 18 (1968)
AND FINALLY, WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-40'S TO THE LOW-50'S. RAIN CHANCES
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY
WITH A SOUTHERN SHIFT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60'S AND 70'S EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ONLY EXPECTED TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY A FEW DEGREES. A SECOND FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS TO 35 MPH) BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE VERY MINOR
WITH MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO END OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 8 31 17 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 8 33 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 15 36 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 5 33 15 56 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 4 26 12 44 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 18 36 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ004>026-034-
035.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR OKZ033-036>038.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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