787
FXUS64 KOUN 211709
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
- NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CLOUD-COVER IS MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST,
WITH STRATUS ADVECTING QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
THOMPSON
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
ANOTHER VERY (POTENTIALLY RECORD) COLD MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, AS A 1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY LIGHT (<10 MPH), DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. THE RECORD COLD LOW FOR FEBRUARY 21ST
APPEARS MOST THREATENED AT OKLAHOMA CITY (AND PERHAPS LAWTON) OVER
THE COMING HOURS.
WHILE MODERATING, ANOTHER COLD DAY WILL CLOSE OUT WAS HAS BEEN A
BITTERLY COLD WEEK OF WEATHER. THE COMBINATION OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH AND ADVECTION OF A QUASI-
DOWNSLOPED AIRMASS WILL END THE STREAK OF CONTINUOUS BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA (MID/UPPER-30S). FURTHER NORTH, DAYTIME HIGHS MAY ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FOR
FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH 10S TO
UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS (FAR NORTH) EXPECTED. LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS
MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH RECORDS FOR COLD MORNING LOWS, THOUGH
POTENTIAL IS LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%).
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
RELATIVE TO THIS PAST WEEK, CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL FEEL LIKE A
"HEAT WAVE", ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
WITH DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF (WEAK)
EMBEDDED WAVES TRAVERSING PORTIONS SOUTH TEXAS. THE IMPACT TO LOCAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PERIOD OF WARM(ING) AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
MAY REACH ~60-DEGREES ON SATURDAY (UPPER-40S/50S ELSEWHERE), THERE
IS HIGH (>60-80%) CONFIDENCE IN 60S FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NIL (<10%) PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS FORECAST,
WITH ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, COINCIDENT WITH AN
INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FAVOR CONTINUED WARM AND
GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE CAPTURES ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY, IN ADVANCE OF AN
ESTABLISHING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS IS FORECAST
TO INSTIGATE A MORE NOTABLE EPISODE OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES LOOKS DRY, A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAY
IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ZONES,
WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE UPPER-70S IN SPOTS.
INTO THE MIDWEEK, A NORTHERN LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
OFFER A MORE NOTABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH
AGAIN (FOR NOW) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATIVE WEATHER LOOK NIL. GIVEN
PROLONGED DRYNESS (AND WARMTH DURING THE EARLY WEEK), THE
POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MONITORED
OVER COMING UPDATES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASING BREEZINESS WITH
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 18Z AROUND
5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 24 19 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 32 17 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 32 21 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 31 17 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 27 11 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 30 24 48 30 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68
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