186
FXUS64 KOUN 222011
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
211 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- WITH WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN LOOKS TO EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FOSTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND INTO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX SOME
AND BACK TO THE SOUTH NEAR SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
HELP AID IN SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING TO GET DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. A
SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOTH A WARM AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM THE
SOUTH (MOST OF THE AREA), AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM WESTERLY
WINDS (WESTERN OKLAHOMA). EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S, AND 60S-70S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY APPROACHING 80 F.
GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR THAT COLD STRETCH. WOULD
HIGHLY RECOMMEND GETTING OUT AND ENJOYING THESE BEAUTIFUL
TEMPERATURES!
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER THEME OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO 70S
APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MOST "SIGNIFICANT" DAY OF
VARIED SENSIBLE IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN A MORE ROBUST
UPPER SYSTEM ROUNDS OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE (INTO THE
OHIO/MISSOURI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED (DRY) FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH WARM AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS, CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY FOCUS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, WHERE
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED <1-INCH OF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAST ~90+ DAYS.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. IN RESPONSE, LEE
TROUGHING HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT, GIVING OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL. AS
EVENING FALLS, WE WILL LOSE THE MINIMAL MIXING, ALLOWING FOR NEAR
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AREAWIDE.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
NEAR THE RED RIVER. EVEN WITH A FEW CLOUDS, VFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH, WHILE UNRESTRICTED SKIES WILL BE THE NORM
FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 28 62 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 26 65 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 29 63 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 26 68 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 23 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 29 60 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...14
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